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Building an Unshakeable Art Portfolio: Your Guide to Crisis-Resistant Art Investments

The Affluent Ceo.

The Affluent Ceo.

— 6 min read
Building an Unshakeable Art Portfolio: Your Guide to Crisis-Resistant Art Investments
Edvard Munch Vampire Source - Sotheby's

The art market has proven to be a dynamic and complex ecosystem, demonstrating both resilience and adaptability in the face of economic downturns and crises. This comprehensive report provides analysis and suggestions on forming a crisis-resistant art investment strategy based on market trends from 2008 to 2010 and 2022.

This report will consist of a brief that lists the key investment strategies, followed by a detailed breakdown of the information we extracted from each time period.

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Table of Contents Art Investment Strategy Brief

  1. 2008 Market Trends Analysis
  2. 2009 Market Trends Analysis
  3. 2010 Market Trends Analysis
  4. 2022 Market Trends Analysis

Art Investment Strategy Brief

Shift Focus to Old Masters, Impressionists, and Modern Categories: These segments showed resilience amidst the 2008 market downturn, offering a safer haven for investments. High-quality pieces from these segments tend to hold their value due to their limited supply.

Invest Cautiously in Contemporary Art: While the contemporary art market has potential for high returns, the sharp contraction of this segment in 2008 underscores the associated risk. Focus on high-quality, unique pieces and avoid speculative buying.

Diversify Investment across Different Segments: Diversification can reduce the risks associated with market volatility. Investors should consider a balanced portfolio that includes works from the Old Masters and Modern art segments.

Preserve Investment in Historical Segments: Despite the declining market share of Old Masters and 19th Century art, these segments have demonstrated resilience and stability, making them worthy of continued investment.

Invest in Blue-chip Artists: Despite economic volatility, blue-chip artists demonstrated resilience, with the Artprice100© index registering a 3% increase in 2022. Investing in works by established, renowned artists can provide relative stability and potentially reliable returns, making it a crucial part of an art investment strategy, especially during uncertain times.

Prioritize High-Quality Masterpieces: The best returns were posted by the rarest masterpieces by blue-chip artists. As such, prioritizing investment in high-quality, rare pieces from these artists could yield significant returns.

Diversify Geographic Exposure: Given the impact of region-specific events, such as the suspension of art auctions in China, the currency impact of the weakened euro against the dollar, London overtaking New York as the capital of the art market in 2008; it would be prudent for investors to diversify their portfolio geographically. This strategy could help mitigate risks associated with regional economic disturbances.

Overview

The global fine art market contracted by 7.5% in Q1 2008, its most significant decline since the 1991-1992 downturn. This contraction, primarily influenced by the global financial crisis, had a noticeable effect on auction trends, buyer behavior, and the geographic concentration of art sales. Despite this contraction, the art market remains resilient and presents potential investment opportunities when navigated strategically.

2008 Market Dynamics

Significant shifts in market dynamics became apparent in 2008. Whereas the 1990s saw the art market driven mainly by banks and Asian collectors focusing on Impressionist and Modern works, the 21st century ushered in a more diverse group of collectors from Asia, Russia, and the Middle East. This change resulted in a 47% increase in the number of works taken to auction over the decade and a greater selectivity among buyers, with the bought-in rate (percentage of lots sold) hovering between 31% and 36%.

2008 saw a 20% increase in lots submitted for auction compared to the already record-breaking 2007. Despite an elevated bought-in rate of 37.8%, the total value of global Fine Art auction sales still reached an impressive $8.3 billion.

The Contemporary art segment suffered the most from the economic downturn, losing 34.4% of its value and effectively erasing two years of speculative gains. On the other hand, Old Masters segment prices rose by 15% during 2008, underlining the relative stability of this market segment.

Asian artists, notably Zhang Xiaogang, Yue Minjun, Zeng Fanzhi, Yan PeiMing, and Takashi Murakami, contributed significantly to the contemporary art price inflation. However, the volatile nature of this market segment and speculative buying resulted in high levels of unsold works at major auctions, reflecting the need for cautious investment in this area.

In terms of geographical trends, the United States, and New York in particular, witnessed a contraction in fine art sales, with revenue falling by 22.8%. This contraction led to London ousting New York as the global leader in art market revenue.

Overview

The financial crisis of 2008 had a profound impact on the art market, causing a sharp contraction in global fine art sales and significantly altering market dynamics. This report provides an analysis of these developments and proposes investment strategies to help investors navigate this changed landscape.

Market Dynamics

The contraction in global fine art sales, primarily led by a sharp drop in seven-figure auction sales, was substantial and reminiscent of the previous market meltdown in the early 1990s. Key players like Christie's and Sotheby's had to adjust their strategies, offering lower prices, and reducing the number and density of lots in their catalogs to stimulate activity.

The decline in the art market reflected broader economic trends, with the Artprice Global Index contracting by 37.4% from the end of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, similar to declines seen in indices like the Dow Jones and the S&P 500.

Interestingly, market trends started shifting from a supply-driven to a demand-driven model. There was also a contraction at the top end of the market and a resurgence of interest in traditional art segments.

The contraction at the top end of the market resulted in a decreasing percentage of works offered between $10,000 and $100,000, while works below $5,000 expanded to represent 75% of lots.

Contemporary art experienced a sharp downturn, with its share in revenues falling from 16% in 2008 to 10% in 2009, and prices in this segment falling by 40% between January 2008 and the end of 2009. However, Old Masters and Modern art segments saw a revival, with their market shares increasing significantly.

Overview

The art market of 2010 showcased a remarkable rebound from the economic crisis of 2008, nearly doubling its global auction revenue from the previous year to total over $9.36 billion. This report will delve into the dynamics of this market recovery and propose forward-looking investment strategies based on the key trends identified.

Market Dynamics

The art market's response to the financial crisis entailed a significant shift in strategy by auction houses, aiming to offer more affordable and safer investments by reducing guarantees and focusing less on hyper-speculative emerging segments. However, this shift was not enough to prevent significant drops in annual revenue for major auction houses in 2009, with Christie's and Sotheby's experiencing declines of 47% and 60% respectively compared to 2008.

Notably, different art segments showed varying degrees of resilience during this period. The Old Masters segment, less susceptible to fashion trends and speculative buying, saw a 4.9% increase in income generated from auctions in 2009. However, other segments, including 19th Century Art, Modern Art, Post-War Art, and Contemporary Art, experienced significant contractions.

Yet, despite the volatility, contemporary art demonstrated a substantial recovery in 2010, doubling its total revenue compared to 2009.

Contemporary art has been the most media-exposed, volatile, and speculative segment in recent years. Beginning the decade with skepticism, it grew significantly over ten years, representing 10.2% of global art auction revenue in 2010, up from a mere 2.83% in 2000.

Old Masters and 19th Century artists, on the other hand, have shown relative stability, but due to the limited supply of high-quality works at auctions, these segments are gradually losing market share.

Overview

The year 2022 presented global economic challenges stemming from the persistent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, tensions in China, and new economic hurdles posed by the war in Ukraine. In light of this turbulent backdrop, the art market posted a contraction of 18%, mirroring the 19% drop of the S&P 500. However, the Artprice100© index, representative of the top 100 blue-chip artists, managed a slight growth of 3%, demonstrating resilience amidst economic uncertainties.

Market Dynamics

Notably, the contrasting performance between the overall art market and the blue-chip artists provides critical insight into the market's dynamics. The decrease in overall art prices, aligned with the S&P 500's contraction, can be attributed to factors such as the suspension of art auctions in China and a weakened euro against the dollar.

Conversely, the blue-chip artists showed remarkable stability and even managed to secure growth, with their rarest masterpieces performing exceptionally well. This suggests a "flight to quality" where, in times of economic uncertainty, investors tend to shift their focus to reliable, high-quality assets.

Sources

ArtPrice (2008). Art Market Trends
https://imgpublic.artprice.com/pdf/trends2008_en.pdf

ArtPrice (2009). Art Market Trends
https://imgpublic.artprice.com/pdf/trends2009_en.pdf

ArtPrice (2010). Art Market Trends
https://imgpublic.artprice.com/pdf/trends2010_en.pdf

ArtPrice (2022). The Artprice100© index of Blue-chip artists up 3% over 2022
https://www.artprice.com/artmarketinsight/the-artprice100-index-of-blue-chip-artists-up-3-over-2022

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